Many people will receive the payout

Donald Trump stirred up headlines with a bold promise on Truth Social: “A dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

He made no mention of a timeline, income thresholds, or other qualifying criteria, according to the *Independent*. This pledge isn’t entirely new—back in July and October, he floated variants of rebate checks tied to tariff revenue. Now, with tariff receipts mounting and legal scrutiny ramping up, he’s doubling down.

**Tariffs: The Engine Behind the Idea**

Trump framed the move as a win-win: tariffs raise revenue, domestic investment surges, and Americans get a cash bonus.

“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!” he declared on Truth Social. “We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price… We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion.”

The money-machine he envisions rests on tariffs sweeping across global imports—the very trade tool now under fire in the courts.

**The Big Hurdles: Cost and Legality**

As analysts point out, the idea faces two massive roadblocks: cost and legality, per *The Guardian*.

Estimates suggest the payouts could run from $300 billion to as high as $513 billion, depending on eligibility. Economist Erica York noted: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150 million adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion… tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.”

While the administration collected about $195 billion in customs duties in the first three quarters of 2025, that still falls far short.

**Legal Challenges Threaten the Plan**

The Supreme Court recently heard arguments challenging the president’s use of emergency-powers law to justify sweeping tariffs. Three lower courts already ruled the approach illegal. If the tariffs collapse in court, the revenue base for the payout may vanish.

**The Bottom Line**

The fine print is missing—who qualifies, when the payout happens, and whether it’s even legal. So don’t expect $2,000 to drop into your bank account anytime soon.